COVID-19 Diary: Week One

The week COVID-19 got serious in the UK, but unfortunately not serious enough for many of the Great British public, who reacted in what at best can be termed variable ways.

We have lived for several months now against the backdrop of the virus and it’s impact around the World, but this week the UK Government started daily briefings on not only the impact of the virus, but the potential devastating impact of the virus, and the steps we should all take to reduce this impact.

The Government have clearly stated that they are listening to the science, which in my view is admirable and correct. Just a shame that too many appear not to be listening to the Government!

I am going to tackle various individual subjects related to the effect and implications of the current situation via separate posts during the forthcoming weeks, but I am also going to take a personal look at how it’s effecting our family once a week.

Listening to the briefings it has been hard not to feel frustration at the current state of the NHS (another subject), the lack of educational awareness across the population (another subject), and the level of arrogance and selfishness in people (another subject).

At the same time it is heartening to read about the tremendous efforts of many, the willingness to help people that day to day we avoid, and of course the British humour has reared its satirical head big time.

Watching the first daily briefing I was struck with how sensible, well informed and reassuring Professor Chris Whitty (Chief Medical Adviser) and Sir Patrick Vallance (Chief Scientific Adviser) are, and I could even muster up some praise for Boris Johnson (I am no fan) with his handling of what is an unprecedented and unknown situation.

Of course it was the substance of the briefing that mattered, and in addition to the science I got the maths: the virus per se is not that huge a risk to the majority of the people that catch it, but for the high risk it can be fatal. The low fatality % though is only one part of the equation ….. the anticipated volume based on experiences around the World is the concern, as the NHS will just not be able to cope.

Many will have watched the Perfect Storm.

This is what we are facing: 1) current occupancy levels in intensive care and the like are already pushing towards their limits, 2) the current projected growth of the virus will mean those at higher risk will requite intensive care places, which are already in short supply and 3) the projected volume of those that it is anticipated will need intensive care places exceeds the number of intensive care places we have, never mind they are currently nearly all being used.

The thing about the Perfect Storm was that it was possible to survive 2 of the 3, but not all 3.

The plan then made a lot of sense: try and slow the spread of the virus which would achieve two things: give the NHS more time to free up spaces and create time to increase core capacity and try and reduce the volume of the virus: lees people catch it less strain on the system.

For all the talk of self isolating, social distancing, lock downs etc it really boiled down to one simple message: see as few people as you possibly can.

Which brings me to our first week. If I say we are fortunate many will think that is strange, but our general lifestyle means that we are fortunate in many ways in respect to the impact on us: we do the majority of our shopping online, we don’t go out to work, the majority of our time is spent at home with our animals or with family.

At the risk of sounding flippant I have pretty much perfected the art of self isolation and social distancing over the years, and while Sands is less comfortable with it, she is more than used to it and capable of getting on with things.

Parents (my mother and father, Sands mother) are the biggest concern, and if this week is anything to go by the signs are encouraging …

My parents are very comfortable in each others company (along with their cat Charmin), and use WhatsApp, online shopping, webcams, Netflix etc already so we are well set up to keep in touch remotely and ensure as little disruption to day to day life. They are concerned, not worried, and we have established that twice a week I will see them and drop off shopping, help clean the house, do any odd jobs. It’s about the maths – if they see nobody but Sands and I, and Sands and I see nobody other than each other and those people we pass whilst walking the dogs or buying food, then our ‘circle of risk’ is very small indeed. We touch base each morning via text/email and share any articles that we think need to be aware of (but we did this anyway) and early evening we have a Video Chat.

Sandra’s mother is more vulnerable being a little older and with a few health issues, but she has a care lady three hours a day who has taken sensible precautions to reduce her ‘circle of risk’. We can have a Video chat with Sands mother when she is with her, and whilst not ideal have decided against visiting for a few weeks to see how she copes with less visits, but less risk. Sandra’s brother works in London (now from home) has 4 children of school age and a wife that through her child care is now involved in caring for the children of many people in the invaluable skills sector, so they have a much larger ‘circle of risk’. Sandra’s brother in law has been working with someone that has now been confirmed as having the virus, so they also have a larger ‘circle of risk’. All we can do is continue to manage our ‘circle of risk’ which for now means avoiding anyone that they may come into contact with.

So as far as this first week has gone I would say no issues. Dogs still being walked, plans have been made, food supplies not a concern, technology being used as ever.

It will be the length of the situation, not the situation that is the real challenge. More on that next week.